Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 2.788508 3.366310 4.014893 4.794021 5.701537 6.722106 7.953415
2025-04-13 1.931768 2.648998 3.543116 4.727970 6.243669 8.103257 10.541085
2025-04-20 1.525460 2.328712 3.420883 4.987361 7.144320 9.973358 13.920517
2025-04-27 1.224886 2.057345 3.278831 5.153898 7.900512 11.706697 17.292252
2025-05-04 1.030876 1.885061 3.225074 5.405927 8.771947 13.654955 21.123877
2025-05-11 0.829338 1.648545 3.019750 5.379218 9.203926 14.992172 24.187247
2025-05-18 0.646795 1.397861 2.738264 5.173165 9.309945 15.825966 26.549975
2025-05-25 0.500454 1.175655 2.459152 4.916242 9.281965 16.422616 28.568693
2025-06-01 0.415096 1.051323 2.330655 4.895109 9.631720 17.632829 31.628454
2025-06-08 0.351794 0.957245 2.240895 4.926416 10.066371 19.006984 35.045254
2025-06-15 0.295509 0.864169 2.134906 4.907189 10.399378 20.225175 38.279768
2025-06-22 0.233580 0.740058 1.939131 4.676581 10.303789 20.676019 40.222657
2025-06-29 0.196560 0.670741 1.854215 4.668997 10.648891 21.965593 43.770297
2025-07-06 0.163854 0.603430 1.760903 4.629111 10.924600 23.151066 47.223932
2025-07-13 0.151341 0.591801 1.800942 4.893191 11.851232 25.631571 53.208720
2025-07-20 0.135754 0.565882 1.799664 5.060506 12.589064 27.802408 58.757923
2025-07-27 0.125208 0.553349 1.831258 5.309896 13.527166 30.430282 65.331084
2025-08-03 0.106279 0.505186 1.755600 5.284080 13.852807 31.859519 69.694847
2025-08-10 0.085228 0.440704 1.618970 5.081378 13.753108 32.412537 72.381511
2025-08-17 0.066840 0.378226 1.472955 4.828497 13.503962 32.628271 74.402118
2025-08-24 0.056833 0.346655 1.415994 4.807714 13.803312 34.019138 78.867122
2025-08-31 0.049300 0.322945 1.379434 4.838542 14.231101 35.714817 84.053903
2025-09-07 0.042006 0.296824 1.328516 4.819617 14.531243 37.149528 88.779422